Dive Brief:
- Cox Automotive is increasing its full-year new-vehicle sales forecast to 15 million vehicles, an increase of nearly 8% from 2022, according to its New-Vehicle Sales Forecast.
- Vehicle sales volume for June 2023 is expected to reach 1.33 million vehicles. For the month of June, the seasonally adjusted annual rate is forecast of 15.2 million vehicles, representing a 16% increase.
- Improved new-vehicle inventory levels have helped to boost sales with June inventory levels up 70% compared to last year. New-vehicle inventory was less than half the current levels a year ago.
Dive Insight:
The U.S. auto market has exceeded expectations following earlier worries about vehicle affordability, supply constraints and a rocky economy, Cox Automotive chief economist, Jonathan Smoke, said in a statement.
“The jobs market has remained healthy, and consumers have found a way to buy new wheels,” he said.
According to Cox’s forecast, General Motors is predicted to lead U.S. auto sales YTD in 2023 with 1,274,604 vehicles sold, which represents a 16.7% market share.
Toyota, Stellantis and Daimler are the only automakers on the Cox’s list of 17 manufacturers with negative YTD sales numbers forecasted for the first six months of the year. According to Cox Automotive predictions, Toyota’s sales will be down 2%, Stellantis 1.4% and Daimler by 4.5%.
With the exception of EV makers Rivian and Lucid, with triple digit gains on much lower sales volume, Mazda’s vehicle sales are forecasted to jump 30.2% to 185,948 vehicles for the first six months of 2023 compared to the same period last year.
EV sales are also trending upwards and are forecast to reach nearly 500,000 units in the first half of 2023, according to Cox. With more battery-powered models in stock at dealerships and 42 models to choose from, market share of EVs is nearing 7% of all U.S. auto sales, according to Cox. Tesla’s YTD sales in the first six months are forecast to increase by 26.7%, which represents a 4.6% market share for the first six months of 2023.
The numbers are not surprising since Tesla led the U.S. in EV sales in Q1. The automaker’s recent price cuts were a contributing factor, according to Cox. Tesla’s sales were up 24.6% year over year in Q1, which helped to boost overall U.S. EV sales in the first half of 2023. Tesla commanded 62.4% of the U.S. EV market in Q1, according to an April 2023 press release.
EV inventory across the U.S. is estimated to be above 90,000 units for the first time, compared to just 21,000 vehicles this time last year, according to Cox estimates.
Cox is forecasting that U.S. EV sales will surpass 1 million units for the first time ever this year, as consumers take advantage of the recently expanded federal EV tax credits of up to $7,500 on qualifying vehicles.
