Car sales, inventory and supply have stabilized after a summer of volatile market reporting due to a cyberattack on a widely used dealer management system, according to a recent Cox Automotive analysis of its vAuto market data.
The total inventory of new vehicles across the U.S. was 2.84 million as of early September, largely flat from the June inventory levels reported before the cyberattack. In early August, inventories were 40% higher than they were one year previously.
The arrival of model year 2025 vehicles to dealer lots has kept inventory levels elevated even as sales have increased 14% year over year, Cox Automotive found. About a fourth of new cars in dealer showrooms are model year 2025 vehicles.
Most brands had higher than average new vehicle days’ supply in early September, but Cox Automotive analysis reports that inventory of new vehicles from previous model years are inflating some automaker brands’ vehicle supply.
For example, Stellantis’ Dodge brand closed out August with an average days’ vehicle supply of 149 days — nearly twice the national average of new vehicle day supply of 77 days. The analysis reported that 22.5% of Dodge’s new vehicles from prior years were still in showrooms.
Higher inventories have pushed new vehicle prices downward, with year-over-year prices continuing to decline. In August, the average transaction price was $47,870, 1.7% lower than it was in August 2023.
“Dealers are telling us the sales environment is humming along at a muted pace and there is growing pressure to lower prices,” said Cox Automotive executive analyst Erin Keating, author of the vAuto market analysis, in a statement about the August 2024 vehicle market.
In addition to the reduction in transaction prices, new vehicle purchase incentives have also grown. In August, the average incentive package across new vehicle purchases was 7.2% of the average transaction price — the highest level since May 2021. This was an increase in the average incentive package level in August 2023, when incentives represented just 4.8% of the average transaction price.
On the other hand, dampened incentives may play a role in keeping brands like Dodge from moving prior inventory. The average incentive package (discounts and rebates) for Dodge customers in August was just 5.6% of the average vehicle transaction price.
Though average incentives have climbed, the average listing price remains relatively high at $46,841. Still, more than a third of new car models available are priced lower than $46,000, with consumers gravitating toward more affordable compact SUVs like the Toyota RAV4, the Chevrolet Trax and the Honda CR-V.
